The independent effect of living in malaria hotspots on future malaria infection: an observational study from Misungwi, Tanzania
Background
As malaria transmission declines, continued improvements of prevention and control
interventions will increasingly rely on accurate knowledge of risk factors and an ability to
define high-risk areas and populations at risk for focal targeting of interventions. This paper
explores the independent association between living in a hotspot and prospective risk of
malaria infection.
Methods
Malaria infection status defined by nPCR and AMA-1 status in year 1 were used to define
geographic hotspots using two geospatial statistical methods (SaTScan and Kernel density
smoothing). Other malaria risk factors for malaria infection were explored by fitting a
multivariable model.
Results
This study demonstrated that residing in infection hotspot of malaria transmission is an
independent predictor of malaria infection in the future.
Conclusion
It is likely that targeting such hotspots with better coverage and improved malaria control
strategies will result in more cost-efficient uses of resources to move towards malaria
elimination.