Background: 

Undetermined attrition prohibits a full understanding of the coverage and effectiveness of HIV programmes. Outcomes following loss to follow-up (LTFU) among antiretroviral therapy (ART) patients may differ according to their reasons for ART initiation.

Setting: 

We compare the true outcomes of adult patients previously identified as LTFU by reason for ART initiation in eight health facilities in north eastern South Africa.

Methods: 

Adult HIV patient records were linked to health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) data from 2014 to 2017.

Outcomes of adults categorised as LTFU (>90 days late for the last scheduled clinic visit) were determined through clinic and routine tracing record reviews, consultation of HDSS data, and supplementary tracing.

We calculated the proportion of patients per outcome category and performed competing risk survival analysis to estimate the cumulative incidence of death, transfer, migration, ART interruption and re-engagement following LTFU.

Results: 

Of 895/1017 patients LTFU with an outcome ascertained, 120 (13.4%) had died, 225 (25.1%) re-engaged, 50 (5.6%) migrated out of the HDSS, 75 (8.4%) were alive and not on treatment, and 315 (35.1%) transferred their treatment. These outcomes varied by sex and pregnancy status at ART initiation. Mortality was less likely among pregnant women, patients with higher baseline CD4, and more likely among older patients.

Conclusion: 

Patient survival and transfers to other facilities are considerably higher than those suggested in earlier studies. Outcomes differ for women who were pregnant or postpartum when initiating ART, with this population less likely to have died and more likely to have migrated out of the HDSS.